2026-03-12 · AVAV · Swing · Core

{"ticker":"AVAV","direction":"bearish","quality_tier":"weak","sections":[{"id":"setup_summary","heading":"What the Setup Is","steps":["Bloom expects a <strong>bearish</strong> setup. Use the open to confirm that the rest of the evidence moves the same way.","The inputs are pulling in different directions. Only continue if price, early candles, and volume all confirm the same direction after the open.","The tracked time horizons are split, so let the opening move decide which side is actually in control today.","AVAV is already 24% below its long-term average, so it is stretched. That makes an early bounce a real risk. Continue only if that bounce fails and sellers take control again."],"contradiction_steps":["The matched tier leans Long while pre-market expectations leaned <strong>bearish</strong>. Enter closer to <strong>$192.95</strong> (lower end of the zone) for a tighter buy entry.","AVAV is already 24% below its long-term average \u2014 stretched to the downside. That was part of the bearish case, but at these levels a bounce is a real risk. The tier may be pricing that in.","Watch the first 15 minutes closely \u2014 a contradiction means the open decides who is right. ADX is only 15 (weak trend) \u2014 require above-average volume before picking a side. If price clearly breaks one way, follow it.","Your safety net stays the same either way: stop-loss at <strong>$241.10</strong>. That caps the downside whether the tier or the model is right."],"pro_tips":["The Bloom Profile flags weak alignment \u2014 many signals conflict. Require clear morning confirmation before taking any position.","Momentum is in a neutral zone. Let the morning price action confirm whether buyers or sellers are stepping in."]},{"id":"action_plan","heading":"What to Do Next","steps":["Your <strong>entry zone</strong> is $192.95 \u2013 $209.58. If the stock opens inside this zone, that's your green light.","The model's estimated morning open ($201.60) falls inside the entry zone \u2014 a clean setup if it holds.","Given the setup, keep your position size <strong>small</strong> \u2014 or wait for a better setup.","Wait for the <strong>first 15 minutes</strong> of trading to confirm the direction before entering. The setup needs morning validation."],"pro_tips":["This stock is a wide mover \u2014 expect meaningful swings during the session. Don't mistake normal volatility for a breakdown."]},{"id":"morning_watch","heading":"What to Watch for in the Morning","steps":["Watch for AVAV to <strong>open flat or lower</strong> and stay below $209.58 in the first 15 minutes.","Look for the first few 5-minute candles to close red (lower than they opened). That confirms sellers are in control.","Check that volume in the first 15 minutes is <strong>at or above average</strong>. If the move happens on low volume, it's less trustworthy.","Yesterday's close was <strong>$207.83</strong>. Use that as your anchor when reading early price action."],"pro_tips":["Momentum is neutral. Watch for early buying or selling pressure to confirm the direction before acting.","The market is choppy \u2014 there is no clear trend. Use smaller size and wider confirmation windows."]},{"id":"trade_management","heading":"How to Manage the Trade","steps":["Set your <strong>stop-loss at $241.10</strong>. If the stock hits this level, exit \u2014 no exceptions.","Your <strong>profit target is $161.43</strong>. Consider taking partial profits (half your position) when the stock gets halfway to this level.","If the trade works, the expected gain is about 22.3% with a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.4.","Once the stock reaches <strong>$181.35</strong> (halfway to target), move your stop to your entry price. This way you can't lose money on the trade.","If nothing happens by midday and the stock hasn't moved toward your target, consider reducing your position. Stale trades tie up capital.","At the end of the day, review: is the setup still valid? If the stock closed in the wrong direction or key levels broke, exit."],"pro_tips":["Your stop has room to breathe. Don't tighten it prematurely; let the trade develop.","Suggestion based on model confidence \u2014 be quicker to take profits or tighten your stop if the trade stalls.","This stock swings wide \u2014 small intraday moves are just noise. Don't adjust your plan based on normal wiggles."]}],"schema_version":"calla-guide/v1","mode":"post_input_decision","trade_type":"Swing","activation":{"state":"gated","title":"Unlock Today's Trade Plan","copy":"Enter Morning and Noon prices to unlock today's matched setup."},"setup_context":{"ticker":"AVAV","trade_type":"Swing","direction":"bearish","model_direction":"bearish","quality_tier":"weak","quality_label":"conflicting","alignment_state":"partial"},"contradiction_rules":{"scout":"Scout tiers are early signals \u2014 a contradiction here is common. Enter closer to <strong>$192.95</strong> (lower end) for a tighter entry. Stop-loss stays at $241.10.","trend":"Trend tiers carry more weight \u2014 proceed cautiously. Use half your planned size and enter closer to <strong>$192.95</strong>. Only add the rest if the first 15 minutes clearly confirm the direction. Stop-loss stays at $241.10.","prime":"Prime tiers are the strongest signal \u2014 this is a serious mismatch. Only enter if you have strong personal conviction and the morning action clearly supports it. If entering, use minimal size at <strong>$192.95</strong> and keep a tight leash. Stop-loss stays at $241.10."},"matched_scenario":{"status":"pending","label":null,"plain_english":"Bloom expects a <strong>bearish</strong> setup. Use the open to confirm that the rest of the evidence moves the same way."},"trade_plan":{"status":"pending","entry_zone":{"lower":192.95,"upper":209.58},"stop_loss":241.1,"take_profit":161.43,"morning_open":201.6,"profit_pct":22.33,"risk_reward":1.39},"risk":{"quality_tier":"weak","position_sizing":"The model's estimated morning open ($201.60) falls inside the entry zone \u2014 a clean setup if it holds.","skip_rule":"If the setup is not confirmed or price never reaches the zone, do nothing."},"steps":[{"id":"morning_trend","number":0,"title":"Morning trend check","instruction":"Before entering prices, review what to look for at the open for AVAV.","bloom_conclusion":"Watch for AVAV to <strong>open flat or lower</strong> and stay below $209.58 in the first 15 minutes.","next_action":"Review these cues, then enter Morning and Noon prices below.","risk_note":null,"why":"The morning open tells you whether today's conditions match the model expectation.","section_id":"morning_watch","show_levels":false,"pro_tips":["Momentum is neutral. Watch for early buying or selling pressure to confirm the direction before acting.","The market is choppy \u2014 there is no clear trend. Use smaller size and wider confirmation windows."],"state":"active"},{"id":"input_prices","number":1,"title":"Enter today's prices","instruction":"Enter today's Morning and Noon prices so Bloom can match the setup.","required_input":["morning_price","noon_price"],"bloom_conclusion":"The live setup is confirmed after Morning and Noon prices are entered.","next_action":"Enter Morning and Noon prices below.","risk_note":"Do not assume the final setup before inputs exist.","why":"The article explains the setup, but the live plan depends on today's actual price context.","section_id":null,"show_levels":false,"pro_tips":[],"state":"active"},{"id":"review_setup","number":2,"title":"Review the setup","instruction":"Bloom expects a <strong>bearish</strong> setup. Use the open to confirm that the rest of the evidence moves the same way.","bloom_conclusion":"Bloom expects a <strong>bearish</strong> setup. Use the open to confirm that the rest of the evidence moves the same way.","next_action":"Use the checks above to decide whether the open confirms or contradicts the bearish setup. If it confirms, continue to the trade entry step. If it contradicts, read the contradiction guidance before deciding whether to proceed.","risk_note":"If price and early momentum do not confirm the setup clearly, stand aside rather than forcing an entry.","why":"The inputs are pulling in different directions. Only continue if price, early candles, and volume all confirm the same direction after the open.","section_id":"setup_summary","show_levels":true,"pro_tips":["The Bloom Profile flags weak alignment \u2014 many signals conflict. Require clear morning confirmation before taking any position.","Momentum is in a neutral zone. Let the morning price action confirm whether buyers or sellers are stepping in."],"state":"pending"},{"id":"enter_trade","number":3,"title":"Enter the trade","instruction":"The entry zone is <strong>$192.95 \u2013 $209.58</strong>. If AVAV is trading inside this range and the morning confirmed the direction, place your order.","bloom_conclusion":"Entry zone: $192.95 \u2013 $209.58.","next_action":"If price is between $192.95 and $209.58 and the open confirmed, place the order now.","risk_note":"If price gaps past the entry zone ($192.95 \u2013 $209.58), do not chase \u2014 wait for a pullback or skip.","why":"Entering at the right price is what gives the trade its edge.","section_id":"action_plan","show_levels":false,"pro_tips":["This stock is a wide mover \u2014 expect meaningful swings during the session. Don't mistake normal volatility for a breakdown."],"state":"pending"},{"id":"protect_trade","number":4,"title":"Protect the trade","instruction":"Now that you're in the trade, you need a safety net. Scroll down to <strong>Show trade protection tools</strong> and type in the price you actually paid. The tool will calculate two key numbers for you:<br>&bull; <strong>Stop-loss ($241.10)</strong> \u2014 if the stock hits this price, exit immediately to limit your loss.<br>&bull; <strong>Take-profit ($161.43)</strong> \u2014 if the stock reaches this price, take your gain.<br>Also note the <strong>Exit on</strong> date \u2014 that is the latest day to close this trade. If the trade hasn't hit your target by then, exit at market close on that date.","bloom_conclusion":"Trade protection sets the boundaries for the trade.","next_action":"Open 'Show trade protection tools' below, enter your fill price, and lock in live levels.","risk_note":"Never leave a trade unprotected \u2014 always know your exit points before walking away.","why":"Protection levels depend on the actual price you paid, not the entry zone estimate.","section_id":null,"show_levels":false,"pro_tips":["The <strong>Breakeven</strong> number shows the price where you neither gain nor lose \u2014 useful as a place to move your stop once the trade is working.","The <strong>Dynamic Stop-Loss</strong> automatically tightens as the trade moves in your favour. It protects gains you've already made."],"state":"pending"},{"id":"manage_trade","number":5,"title":"Manage the trade","instruction":"The protection tools would now be set \u2014 let the trade work within those boundaries. While the position is open, <strong>keep an eye on AVAV headlines</strong>, broader policy or tariff news, and \u26a0\ufe0f <strong>the next earnings or dividend date</strong> shown in the Live panel below. These events can cause abrupt trend disruptions that no model can anticipate ahead of time \u2014 if one falls inside your holding window, consider reducing size or tightening your stop beforehand.","bloom_conclusion":"Active monitoring keeps you ahead of surprises.","next_action":"Check the Live panel for event dates, then review the position at the morning open and again into the close.","risk_note":"If headlines or event risk push price sharply against the trade, exit quickly rather than hoping it comes back.","why":"Markets change fast. Staying informed protects your capital.","section_id":"trade_management","show_levels":false,"pro_tips":["Your stop has room to breathe. Don't tighten it prematurely; let the trade develop.","Suggestion based on model confidence \u2014 be quicker to take profits or tighten your stop if the trade stalls.","This stock swings wide \u2014 small intraday moves are just noise. Don't adjust your plan based on normal wiggles."],"state":"pending"}],"fallback":{"used":false,"empty_reason":null,"missing_fields":[]}}