2026-03-17 · ULTA · Swing · Core

{"ticker":"ULTA","direction":"bearish","quality_tier":"moderate","sections":[{"id":"setup_summary","heading":"What the Setup Is","steps":["Pre-market conditions point <strong>bearish</strong>, and the Bloom Profile leans the same way. That gives you a starting point \u2014 the open will tell you whether to act on it.","The signals are moderately aligned \u2014 treat the open as your confirmation step. A clean move in Bloom's direction during the first 15 minutes is what turns this into a usable trade.","4 of 4 tracked time horizons lean <strong>bearish</strong>. If the open holds that same direction, the setup is staying on script.","The sector is down 3.3% this month, which leans the same way. If sector tone holds after the open, that is one more data point in your favour.","Short-, medium-, and long-term price averages also point <strong>bearish</strong>. That is another data point leaning the same way."],"contradiction_steps":["The matched tier leans Long while pre-market expectations leaned <strong>bearish</strong>. Enter closer to <strong>$499.50</strong> (lower end of the zone) for a tighter buy entry.","4 of 4 tracked time horizons lean <strong>bearish</strong>, which is where the pre-market starting point came from. The tier gives you a different angle based on today's prices.","The sector is down 3.3% this month \u2014 that favours the pre-market bearish read, while the matched tier points a different way. Use this gap to size your risk.","Price averages point <strong>bearish</strong>, which lines up with the pre-market read. The tier is reading today's price action differently \u2014 weigh both when sizing.","Watch the first 15 minutes closely \u2014 when the tier and pre-market starting point differ, the open tells you which way to lean. RSI is at 20 and already oversold \u2014 that supports the tier's Long read since a bounce is likelier at these levels. If price clearly breaks one way, follow it.","Your safety net stays the same either way: stop-loss at <strong>$554.69</strong>. That caps the downside whether the tier or the model is right."],"pro_tips":["Model inputs are partially split. Wait for the morning to clarify direction before committing full size.","Added confirmation: momentum is deeply stretched down. A bounce is increasingly likely \u2014 good for buy-side entries, but be cautious with new sells at these levels."]},{"id":"action_plan","heading":"What to Do Next","steps":["Your <strong>entry zone</strong> is $499.50 \u2013 $518.57. If the stock opens inside this zone, that's your green light.","The model's estimated morning open ($501.06) falls inside the entry zone \u2014 a clean setup if it holds.","Given the setup, consider using <strong>half your planned position size</strong> and adding the rest only if the morning confirms the direction.","Wait for the <strong>first 15 minutes</strong> of trading to confirm the direction before entering. The setup needs morning validation."],"pro_tips":["This stock is a wide mover \u2014 expect meaningful swings during the session. Don't mistake normal volatility for a breakdown."]},{"id":"morning_watch","heading":"What to Watch for in the Morning","steps":["Watch for ULTA to <strong>open flat or lower</strong> and stay below $518.57 in the first 15 minutes.","Look for the first few 5-minute candles to close red (lower than they opened). That confirms sellers are in control.","Check that volume in the first 15 minutes is <strong>at or above average</strong>. If the move happens on low volume, it's less trustworthy.","The broad market moved +1.0% yesterday. Check S&P 500 futures before the open \u2014 if the market moves sharply against your setup direction, consider waiting.","Yesterday's close was <strong>$516.56</strong>. Use that as your anchor when reading early price action."],"pro_tips":["Added confirmation: momentum is deeply stretched down. A bounce becomes more likely the further it drops \u2014 be cautious adding new sells here.","The trend is active. Moves in the trend direction are more likely to follow through today."]},{"id":"trade_management","heading":"How to Manage the Trade","steps":["Set your <strong>stop-loss at $554.69</strong>. If the stock hits this level, exit \u2014 no exceptions.","Your <strong>profit target is $463.37</strong>. Consider taking partial profits (half your position) when the stock gets halfway to this level.","If the trade works, the expected gain is about 10.3% with a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.4.","Once the stock reaches <strong>$486.20</strong> (halfway to target), move your stop to your entry price. This way you can't lose money on the trade.","If nothing happens by midday and the stock hasn't moved toward your target, consider reducing your position. Stale trades tie up capital.","At the end of the day, review: is the setup still valid? If the stock closed in the wrong direction or key levels broke, exit."],"pro_tips":["Your stop has room to breathe. Don't tighten it prematurely; let the trade develop.","Suggestion based on model confidence \u2014 be quicker to take profits or tighten your stop if the trade stalls.","This stock swings wide \u2014 small intraday moves are just noise. Don't adjust your plan based on normal wiggles."]}],"schema_version":"calla-guide/v1","mode":"post_input_decision","trade_type":"Swing","activation":{"state":"gated","title":"Unlock Today's Trade Plan","copy":"Enter Morning and Noon prices to unlock today's matched setup."},"setup_context":{"ticker":"ULTA","trade_type":"Swing","direction":"bearish","model_direction":"bearish","quality_tier":"moderate","quality_label":"loosely aligned","alignment_state":"aligned"},"contradiction_rules":{"scout":"Scout tiers are early signals \u2014 a direction update here is normal and tells you how to manage your entry. Enter closer to <strong>$499.50</strong> (lower end) for a tighter entry. Stop-loss stays at $554.69.","trend":"Trend tiers carry more weight \u2014 proceed cautiously. Use half your planned size and enter closer to <strong>$499.50</strong>. Only add the rest if the first 15 minutes clearly confirm the direction. Stop-loss stays at $554.69.","prime":"Prime tiers carry the most weight \u2014 when the tier and the pre-market read point different ways, the risk profile changes. Only enter if the morning action clearly supports the tier's direction. If entering, use minimal size at <strong>$499.50</strong> and keep a tight leash. Stop-loss stays at $554.69."},"matched_scenario":{"status":"pending","label":null,"plain_english":"Pre-market conditions point <strong>bearish</strong>, and the Bloom Profile leans the same way. That gives you a starting point \u2014 the open will tell you whether to act on it."},"trade_plan":{"status":"pending","entry_zone":{"lower":499.5,"upper":518.57},"stop_loss":554.69,"take_profit":463.37,"morning_open":501.06,"profit_pct":10.3,"risk_reward":1.39},"risk":{"quality_tier":"moderate","position_sizing":"The model's estimated morning open ($501.06) falls inside the entry zone \u2014 a clean setup if it holds.","skip_rule":"If the setup is not confirmed or price never reaches the zone, do nothing."},"steps":[{"id":"morning_trend","number":0,"title":"Morning trend check","instruction":"Before entering prices, review what to look for at the open for ULTA.","bloom_conclusion":"Watch for ULTA to <strong>open flat or lower</strong> and stay below $518.57 in the first 15 minutes.","next_action":"Review these cues, then enter Morning and Noon prices below.","risk_note":null,"why":"The morning open tells you whether today's conditions match the model expectation.","section_id":"morning_watch","show_levels":false,"pro_tips":["Added confirmation: momentum is deeply stretched down. A bounce becomes more likely the further it drops \u2014 be cautious adding new sells here.","The trend is active. Moves in the trend direction are more likely to follow through today."],"state":"active"},{"id":"input_prices","number":1,"title":"Enter today's prices","instruction":"Enter today's Morning and Noon prices so Bloom can match the setup.","required_input":["morning_price","noon_price"],"bloom_conclusion":"The live setup is confirmed after Morning and Noon prices are entered.","next_action":"Enter Morning and Noon prices below.","risk_note":"Do not assume the final setup before inputs exist.","why":"The article explains the setup, but the live plan depends on today's actual price context.","section_id":null,"show_levels":false,"pro_tips":[],"state":"active"},{"id":"review_setup","number":2,"title":"Review the setup","instruction":"Pre-market conditions point <strong>bearish</strong>, and the Bloom Profile leans the same way. That gives you a starting point \u2014 the open will tell you whether to act on it.","bloom_conclusion":"Pre-market conditions point <strong>bearish</strong>, and the Bloom Profile leans the same way. That gives you a starting point \u2014 the open will tell you whether to act on it.","next_action":"Use the checks above to see whether the open lines up with the bearish starting point, or whether the market is leaning the other way. Either outcome gives you a clear next step.","risk_note":"Wait for the first 15 minutes to see whether the open supports the setup direction before continuing.","why":"The signals are moderately aligned \u2014 treat the open as your confirmation step. A clean move in Bloom's direction during the first 15 minutes is what turns this into a usable trade.","section_id":"setup_summary","show_levels":true,"pro_tips":["Model inputs are partially split. Wait for the morning to clarify direction before committing full size.","Added confirmation: momentum is deeply stretched down. A bounce is increasingly likely \u2014 good for buy-side entries, but be cautious with new sells at these levels."],"state":"pending"},{"id":"enter_trade","number":3,"title":"Enter the trade","instruction":"The entry zone is <strong>$499.50 \u2013 $518.57</strong>. If ULTA is trading inside this range and the morning confirmed the direction, place your order.","bloom_conclusion":"Entry zone: $499.50 \u2013 $518.57.","next_action":"If price is between $499.50 and $518.57 and the open confirmed, place the order now.","risk_note":"If price gaps past the entry zone ($499.50 \u2013 $518.57), do not chase \u2014 wait for a pullback or skip.","why":"Entering at the right price is what gives the trade its edge.","section_id":"action_plan","show_levels":false,"pro_tips":["This stock is a wide mover \u2014 expect meaningful swings during the session. Don't mistake normal volatility for a breakdown."],"state":"pending"},{"id":"protect_trade","number":4,"title":"Protect the trade","instruction":"Now that you're in the trade, you need a safety net. Scroll down to <strong>Show trade protection tools</strong> and type in the price you actually paid. The tool will calculate two key numbers for you:<br>&bull; <strong>Stop-loss ($554.69)</strong> \u2014 if the stock hits this price, exit immediately to limit your loss.<br>&bull; <strong>Take-profit ($463.37)</strong> \u2014 if the stock reaches this price, take your gain.<br>Also note the <strong>Exit on</strong> date \u2014 that is the latest day to close this trade. If the trade hasn't hit your target by then, exit at market close on that date.","bloom_conclusion":"Trade protection sets the boundaries for the trade.","next_action":"Open 'Show trade protection tools' below, enter your fill price, and lock in live levels.","risk_note":"Never leave a trade unprotected \u2014 always know your exit points before walking away.","why":"Protection levels depend on the actual price you paid, not the entry zone estimate.","section_id":null,"show_levels":false,"pro_tips":["The <strong>Breakeven</strong> number shows the price where you neither gain nor lose \u2014 useful as a place to move your stop once the trade is working.","The <strong>Dynamic Stop-Loss</strong> automatically tightens as the trade moves in your favour. It protects gains you've already made."],"state":"pending"},{"id":"manage_trade","number":5,"title":"Manage the trade","instruction":"The protection tools would now be set \u2014 let the trade work within those boundaries. While the position is open, <strong>keep an eye on ULTA headlines</strong>, broader policy or tariff news, and \u26a0\ufe0f <strong>the next earnings or dividend date</strong> shown in the Live panel below. These events can cause abrupt trend disruptions that no model can anticipate ahead of time \u2014 if one falls inside your holding window, consider reducing size or tightening your stop beforehand.","bloom_conclusion":"Active monitoring keeps you ahead of surprises.","next_action":"Check the Live panel for event dates, then review the position at the morning open and again into the close.","risk_note":"If headlines or event risk push price sharply against the trade, exit quickly rather than hoping it comes back.","why":"Markets change fast. Staying informed protects your capital.","section_id":"trade_management","show_levels":false,"pro_tips":["Your stop has room to breathe. Don't tighten it prematurely; let the trade develop.","Suggestion based on model confidence \u2014 be quicker to take profits or tighten your stop if the trade stalls.","This stock swings wide \u2014 small intraday moves are just noise. Don't adjust your plan based on normal wiggles."],"state":"pending"}],"fallback":{"used":false,"empty_reason":null,"missing_fields":[]}}